12 hour time trial pacing; let’s get it right this time.

An up and down few weeks, trying and almost succeeding in keeping some consistency going. Three weeks ago I was taking part in the Hounslow 100m time trial. This was to be my last long ride before this Sunday’s 12 hour and as it was on the same course it was going to give me all the power and speed data I would need to pace the 12 hour. All was going well until an hour in, when I went past the Hen and Chicken pub only to see a car on its roof on the other side of the road. As a result the event was immediately abandoned, so that was that.

I was riding at 4:12 pace for 100 miles when it was stopped so that gives me something to work with. (I also did my first 100 in last,year's 12 in 4:18 when I blew, so I know not to got that hard again in a 12)  I’ve found a 12 hour pacing schedule that seems to be quite accurate, according to those that have used it before and this would seem to suggest a 255 mile finish, which would be frankly amazing. That said, after last year’s epic 12 hour fail, my first goal is to finish. The pacing works by calculating your middle 25 mile time for an average pace, then adding a minute for every 25 after that, and subtracting a minute for every 25 before.

Basic target: Finish. Don’t DNF. Make sure I get the pacing right in the first 6 hours, then all bets are off. My pb of 235 miles should be well within reach.
Dream Goal: 260 miles. Only likely to happen if I don’t drop off big time towards the end and the weather plays ball.
Stretch Goal: Frank’s old club record of 257 miles. Maybe.
Stellar day: 255 miles. According to the schedule, this should be on, barring mechanicals, long pit stops, massively getting my pacing wrong etc.
A great day: 250 miles. I would be delighted with this.

It boils down to this: